Is there any way to calculate the chance to loose materials while crafting?

(I'm crafting duskwood shod staffs atm and fumbled seven times. Chance to craft is 30%. Chance for skill increase is 56%, but everytime I make it to craft metalworking raises only (which could just be bad luck)

I'd just like to know if I'm could be crafting with bugs.

(just made another one, no skill increase)

I know crafting is supposed to be hard in the higher levels, but I should be having a lot more luck with this one )

edit: another fumble.

edit2: metalworking. logging off.

You never lose materials when you craft yellow items.
Chance to gain skill is still around 40%-50%, so if you are worried about the materials, craft yellow.

What type of crafter are you? And what skill are you trying to increase (if metalworking is not the desired one)? Could it be that it's not your main job and you have already reached the max % restriction for this skill? Dunno, though, if "chance for skill increase" is still displayed in this case...

I'm a fletcher who wants to raise fletching.
But what I mainly want to know is still how to calculate the fumble chance.

hmm, i have legendary crafters in allmost all skills but i never fumbled

i failed, and somethimes if i failed i lost material, but fumble?


but in fletching i can only give you one advice, make bows, and raise your metalworking with cheap weaponcrafting...

if you start to make an item as soon it gets orange, you will fail a lot, and loose material too, on the other hand, if you don't fail you have a good chance to get skillpoints for it...

loosing some stuff is not that bad, making 10 items withouth getting points is worse cause you loos more money on sellback...

Of course, monty.
I'm crafting this way already.

And that's why I can't understand all these fumbles (crafting is pretty similar to melee ^^ miss = not good, fumble = worse ) the staff was orange for some time now.
But anyway, I'm out of this streak of bad luck now and just want to know chance to loose materials while crafting^^

For best chance of craft skill increase with no loose of material, craft things that take from 5 to 10 points above your skill in fletching. I discovered that you do not loose materials if you craft things that require 10 or less points above your skill. At least this is how it works with flethcing...