ForumState of the RNG
73 posts
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no, i am not quitting, but i have had enough.
I have played daoc for 10 years, and i can say that this RNG is broken. After getting numerous (and i do mean numerous) instances of 5-7 resists in a row on yellow mobs (I cant tell you how many times I have died in rvr because of a random resist, or 5-6 random resists in a row... on players)- I have reached my tipping point - FINALLY. This impacts rvr as much as it does crafting so I am posting it here. I have crafted on every single live server I played on. This includes 7 LGM tailors, 7 LGM armorcrafters, and a few spellcrafters. I have never seen such inconsistency with the RNG as I do here. I stopped crafting ~2 months ago when I went 290 tries without making a single MP. This was after 3 other strings of 175+ attempts. This is absolutely ludicrous. I am now at another 160 tries without an MP. I have definitely received the normal (if not elevated) number of 99s. but this RNG is simply not calculating correctly at all for ANYTHING. Uthgard Devs, I am laying down the gauntlet. Either admit your RNG is not working - or tell the community EXACTLY what proof you need. Want to retain server population - which has steadily declined every week for the past 10 weeks? Start engaging your player base on things that are constantly pointed out. |
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This topic has been discussed in detail here: viewtopic.php?f=32&t=42988
You will also find tests from Pendragon (DAoC Retail) and Uthgard with matching results. News || Getting Started || Rules || Issue Tracker
Coloured text represents my personal opinion and is not associated with Uthgard Staff nor is it an official statement. |
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Genjiro - im sorry but that simply does not cover it.
either Mastery of Focus needs to be put in, or the resist rate needs to change. I am not exaggerating, in my farming session right now i am averaging 40% of my resists on yellow and oj mobs. this is downright ludicrous. I understand you want to defend your baby - but this is NOT working as intended. Any person that has played this game for extended periods of time can tell you this. |
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The resist streaks I experience on uthgard are not present on live, even if the resist rate over time is the same. |
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Part of the problem is that we still haven't had any good evidence or explanations.
Lurker went and did tests on live and his results that I saw seemed to repeat both the resist rate, and the instances of resist streaks. Nothing is going to get done without numbers, because human biases are too apparent. |
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I am going to log everything from here on in, i will get a sample size of 5k casts, i do not have an account for live however.
i have 462 casts right now 79 resists 383 hits 17.1% resist rate on windswept wraiths with the lvl 47 cold dd, toon I am using is a 50 dark rm |
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Actually, there's no matching results posted at all regarding resist-streaks with data from uthgard, no one sent logs. |
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viewtopic.php?f=32&t=42988&start=75 News || Getting Started || Rules || Issue Tracker
Coloured text represents my personal opinion and is not associated with Uthgard Staff nor is it an official statement. |
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I did not log the first half of the evening, oddly enough the drop rate was through the roof during this period of crazy resists (and crafting failures). After this ironed out, the drop rate for items went to almost nothing. The resist rate was extraordinarily high for the first 2 hours and steadily dropped for the remainder of the evening.
I need ideas on how to analyze the data from a streakiness perspective. I think i am going to try doing a trailing 50-100 casts resist rate or something. my resist rate was easily 40% for a solid 30 minutes at one point today. 134 resists 723 hits 857 total 15.64% resist rate distribution Consecutive successful nukes: (#streak - count) 1-114 2-99 3-77 4-67 5-55 6-44 7-37 8-35 9-28 10-26 11-22 12-20 13-18 14-16 15-14 16-13 17-10 18-9 19-5 20-5 21-4 22-2 23-2 24-1 25-0 Resist DIstribution (#streak - count) 1-113 2-17 3-3 4-1 5-0 Edit: I have 2 separate sections where the trailing 50 casts has a resist rate of 34%. and this is excluding the really bad streaks which actually caused me to write this post and turn on logging (and i know for a fact the resists were ~40-45% at this point). The variation can in theory be attributed to normalized distribution. any reasonable statistician will ask what the sample size is. I will say that being 10-15 standard deviations from the mean is not acceptable. This will force people to stop doing whatever it is they are doing because it seems they are unlucky, and this game sucks because they cant farm, rvr, craft, or whatever. |
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This is the sort of thing I am referencing:
https://gamedev.stackexchange.com/quest ... generation This post talks about how to de-normalize the RNG so someone is not too lucky or too unlucky. it really is a very simple concept when you think about it. I do not know how this will impact performance, or how the rng is even working (i think it was mentioned in a prior post that one rng runs everything) a separate rng algorithm may need to exist for combat vs crafting vs drops or something, I do not know, I do not know how the game is architected). RIght now the balance is really screwy. This theory would solve almost every single problem mentioned by every poster, and i bet that this concept was probably introduced in retail/live servers, but not here on uthgaard. and to the devs - if you look at my post history, i understand technology extremely well. If you want input from a theory perspective or ideas on how to normalize the curve to keep the RNG from hitting the 10th, 15th, 20th standard deviations... like how I have in crafting - please let me know. I am happy to help. I have lost 20-30p in crafting trying to make MPs. No one should go 290+ attempts on an MP without getting one, its absolutely ludicrous. |
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Would love some logs off anyone! If anyone has the inclination, /chatlog the heck out of your sessions and send em across. I'm actually in the process of building a web based log parser that will allow daoc players to upload logs over multiple sessions and retain / view their statistics. Things like: Most damaged enemy players. Most damaged by enemy players. Total casts / resists / streaks broken down by spell and opponent level (where the API can be used). Resist / Streak analysis. etc. etc. Im open to any other ideas / stats people would be interested in seeing through this (not just RNG based), e.g. Total dmg done based on dmg type, etc. Will be a little while before i have it running. Also, parsing that chat log is a bit of a pain, trying to handle all the situations that could occur. |
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There Is a load of streak analysis code (c#) I shared in the previous thread that looked specifically at streaks, occurrences of them and the probabilities around them. Could well be improved im sure. |
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Truly random sequences of numbers are to me, fascinating.
A test of 100,000,000 spells could/would prove the resist rates are functioning as normal. (It looks like this has basically been proven at this point). However, it would be interesting to see if live DaoC does anything to protect gamers from the harsh reality of random numbers. I remember some fascinating things from Leonard Mlodinow's book "The Drunkard's Walk" such as in sequences of millions of 0's and 1's, it's not uncommon to see streaks of the same number lasting hundreds long. Or the fact that in a crowd of (I think it was 22) people, the odds are, you share a birthday with one other person. The idea of saying there is a 1% chance to make a MP item is fine. In practice, a truly random world, it becomes much lower when looking at sequences of 300 chances. You're never padded against 300 fails in a row. Over millions of attempts, it would probably equalize at 1%. The question becomes, should we be protected from "rolling the dice fresh each time." In Mlodinow's book he talked about Apple having to reduce the randomness of their media player "random" feature, as it would play the same song 2-3-4 times in a row at times. I believe the frustrating thing is that telling somebody "Your spell has a 20% resist rate," and they are fine with the idea of landing 4/5 times. They are probably not fine to see 4 resists in a row (which is probably not that uncommon.) It's just a paradigm that folks have, expecting at least one MP item per 100 tries, or expecting a lvl 50 spell to land 87.5% of the time. I believe casinos make a fortune on this idea. In the debate of "stacking" the randomness in the players favor, I think that's probably fine against mobs, and in crafting. PVP wise is more of a slippery slope. I think in RVR if you're an individual who loathes the randomness of the world, playing a class that doesn't deal with it may be best  heals always work...pbt always works....theurg pets....there's lots of ways to avoid the large foot of true randomness.Wackle the chanter
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Everyone who wants to talk about resist rates on uthgard should show a certificate that he has basic knowledge of statistics.
GM's posted comparison between live and uthgard showing consistent results. Still ppl don't believe it. Hard to talk about it if talking to ppl that have no understanding of statistics. |
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Could say the same thing about philosophy, politics, community, game design... the list goes on. You cant stop people from complaining if something only *feels* odd. We are only human. My mind’s made up, don’t confuse me with facts.
You mustn't assume that your personal situation is a reflection of every other person that has logged in to Uthgard. |
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